domenica 8 gennaio 2012

Looking forward: 2012 in Italy

next post Wednesday January 11th 2012

Looking forward: what will be this new year for Italy, Italians and our economy?.
You can find a independent view of what happened in Italy in 2011 in this post  offered by Alex Roe and his team, although I do not agree with everything it’s told here, I do believe it’s a good résumé and a good place to start from for understanding what went on and what’s going on in our country.
But, what about this 2012?
Forecast are not positive, although the Stock Exchange market of the first days of January where really positive. Personally I do not share the pessimism of economical and political analysts, even if  I have to confess that I cannot sort my expectations from my analyses and hopes from facts.
Why do I believe that 2012 will be better. First, it would be very difficult to find a year worst that 2011…. (smile!).
Well, the new technical government can have enough strength to strengthen our economy, breaking some of the old privileges that plaster our society: trade unions, corporations, bureaucracy. Since this prime minister must not respond to electors, he can impose the sacrifice that could really make a change. Yes, many do not share the same respect and consideration for this government, which actually could look like a coup d’état more than a solution, and fear that banks have took over Italy, like they did with Spain and Greek. Since we do not have the Palantir neither are we so intimate with mr Monti and his ministers, we have just to wait and see…
But what makes me feel rather optimist for next year is a new will that I can find in the people around: the desire to be the hero of one own’s life, to be able to start again dreaming and beating the destiny.
Christmas vacation showed s good level of expenditure: of course less than previous years, especially cutting what was not perceived as necessary, and I do not mean the essential.
We have been told by everyone that we need to save, to act more soberly, so it’ s impossible to reproach if consumption went down!
But hotels were almost full and everyone took some days of vacation and do not save money on restaurants and parties. I’m aware that this could not be takes as a measurement of a potential growth. But if I sum up these indicators with what I heard from other sources, and with the fact we already mentioned that the real backbone of our country is made up of SME having nothing to do with the Stock market, and with the wide opportunity  that still exists for any Made in Italy products, I end up being more positive than pessimistic.
So, next year could really be a new start up, as sort of small “Italia new deal”.
We all need that, so let’s strive to get what we want. The old saying is very clear and sharp: either if you foreseen to lose or to win, you’ll be right.  

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